Global Mosquito Alert Models
Model Overview
These models provide estimates of the probability of reports being sent through Mosquito Alert during a given month from each area shown on the map assuming full sampling effort everywhere. In the case of mosquito bite reports, the estimates are of the probability of at least one such report being sent during the given month. In the case of the targeted adult mosquito reports ( Ae. albopictus, Ae. koreicus, Ae. japonicus, or Culex), the estimates are of the probability of at least report being sent during the given month that is classified by the digital entolab experts as possibly or probably representing the given target species/genus (i.e. a score of 1 or 2).
These estimates should be roughly correlated with the probability of a person being bitten by a mosquito or of encountering an adult mosquito of each given target species/genus. Note however, that the probabilities faced by a person are not what is being directly modeled. Instead, the models start with a set of spatio-temporal units (see more on this below) and they make estimates about the probabilities of reports being received from these units.
Units of analysis
The units of analysis in these models are areal-unit-months, with the areal units defined by level 4 of the Global Administrative Areas Database (GADM) (Global Administrative Areas 2022; see Brigham, Gilbert, and Xu 2011), with slight modifications. GADM level 4 corresponds to Eurostat’s Local Administrative Units Level 2, which are municipalities in most of the countries included in the model. For those countries for which GADM level 4 is not available (e.g. Andorra), the next lowest GADM level is used instead. (GADM is used here instead of Eurostat’s NUTS or LAU because these models will soon be expanded beyond Europe.)
Model estimates are shown on a map that can be zoomed out to reveal GADM levels 3, 2, and 1 as well. For these units, estimates are made by aggregating probabilities such that the interpretation remains the same: The estimate at each level is of the probability of at least one report being sent from the given unit.
Model Estimates
The following plots show model estimates at the GADM-4 level (the smallest spatial unit of analysis) for each month during 2022 for each of the target species/genus and for mosquito bites. The final plot then shows the temporal patterns of the estimates from Januray 2021 to present.
Ae. albopictus
Ae. koreicus
